Looking Forward: The Future of the DPRK and Kim Jong Un's Rule
Un, or Oligarchy?
North Korea watchers and experts have been attempting to predict the DPRK's future since the new leader assumed office. By now, anyone who has been keeping an eye on updates regarding the nation have made some kind of assessment as to how things will turn out. There seems to be a few predictions: either things will stay the same, change a little bit, or change a lot. However, this is an over-simplified version of what's at stake. Essentially, the future of Korea rests largely in how Kim Jong Un takes hold of his own authority and learns quickly the ways of his father and grandfather. If he is any way weak or easy to manipulate, he will merely be reduced to a symbolic figure, while the real power will rest in the agencies and Politburo; thus leading to even further oligarchy. The level of worry over this is differed among experts, however.
Lim Soo-Ho, author of the article "Post-Kim Jong Il Regime" and "The Kim Jong-Un Era: Style, Ideology and Diplomacy" asserts that Kim Jong Un must, in time, display his authority through further experience. If he is not successful, the elite officials around him could overwhelm the areas of influence and power and take advantage of the young leader. Currently, Kim Jong Un is seeking more council than is usual for those in the "Dear Leader" position, due mainly to his inexperience. "A regime led solely by Kim Jong Un would come forth only after the young man demonstrates to the power elite his strong leadership capabilities under the regency," (Lim). Basically, the young leader is learning most of what he needs to know on the job. Additionally, the Korean Workers' Party has had more of an influential role in running things due to the leader's learning on the job.
Lim also suggests that, in order to secure his absolute leadership role, he must execute these three main actions:
1. Military Strength
2. Revamp the economy
3. Secure political rule. Ex. Being head of the Workers' Party (See New Leadership).
In order to accomplish these goals, Kim Jong Un has already attempted to deliver his means of authority through a few actions. In regards to military strength, the leader has attempted to launch two rockets in the last year. One failed in April and the other in December of 2012 was a success, according to the state media. While the state media claims this was merely a scientific pursuit, many claim that rocket technology can aid in the advancement of launching missiles. Either way, Kim Jong Un has puffed his chest out to the world by going against what the UN claims to be violations of Security Council Resolutions. Many see this action as a serious threat, but in reality, it's mostly just another way for Kim Jong Un to show to his people and the world that he is a serious ruler, and not just a young 20-something. These actions by Kim Jong Un suggest that he may want to keep with the same militaristic policies of his father, or at least the international reputation exhibited by him.
Lim Soo-Ho, author of the article "Post-Kim Jong Il Regime" and "The Kim Jong-Un Era: Style, Ideology and Diplomacy" asserts that Kim Jong Un must, in time, display his authority through further experience. If he is not successful, the elite officials around him could overwhelm the areas of influence and power and take advantage of the young leader. Currently, Kim Jong Un is seeking more council than is usual for those in the "Dear Leader" position, due mainly to his inexperience. "A regime led solely by Kim Jong Un would come forth only after the young man demonstrates to the power elite his strong leadership capabilities under the regency," (Lim). Basically, the young leader is learning most of what he needs to know on the job. Additionally, the Korean Workers' Party has had more of an influential role in running things due to the leader's learning on the job.
Lim also suggests that, in order to secure his absolute leadership role, he must execute these three main actions:
1. Military Strength
2. Revamp the economy
3. Secure political rule. Ex. Being head of the Workers' Party (See New Leadership).
In order to accomplish these goals, Kim Jong Un has already attempted to deliver his means of authority through a few actions. In regards to military strength, the leader has attempted to launch two rockets in the last year. One failed in April and the other in December of 2012 was a success, according to the state media. While the state media claims this was merely a scientific pursuit, many claim that rocket technology can aid in the advancement of launching missiles. Either way, Kim Jong Un has puffed his chest out to the world by going against what the UN claims to be violations of Security Council Resolutions. Many see this action as a serious threat, but in reality, it's mostly just another way for Kim Jong Un to show to his people and the world that he is a serious ruler, and not just a young 20-something. These actions by Kim Jong Un suggest that he may want to keep with the same militaristic policies of his father, or at least the international reputation exhibited by him.
Kim Jong Un in the Public Eye
Kim Jong Un riding a rollercoaster
At the same time, Kim Jong Un has shown that he is different from his father in terms of public relations. The next attempt to display his legitimacy, especially to the people, is by going out in public and showing his love and warmth for the people. In order to be in power, even in North Korea, it is important for the people to love the leader. Otherwise, the state media would not put up efforts to feed the cult of personality that surrounds the leader and his family. The Yonhap News Agency discusses in several reports the young leader's attempt to come across as warm and kind to his people. During the last year, the leader has visited many schools, openings for industrial projects, soldiers, and openings of things like amusements parks. While his father also did these things, it was not as often. Kim Jong Il is known for being more of a secluded leader than open and warm. "Only small clutches of ordinary Koreans had the privilege to meet Kim Jong Il during his field trips to factories, military bases, and construction sites…Kim Jong Un has had more direct communication and interaction with the public" (Lim). Even western media like CNN has observed the openness of the new leader. Kim Jong Un is sometimes even seen hugging, embracing, and smiling at ordinary citizens (Yonhap News Agency). This would be unheard of under Kim Jong Il.
This openness does, however, remind many citizens of the days of Kim Il Sung, who is said to have also been outwardly kind to his comrades. Song Mi Ran, editorial writer for the Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun, states that "Kim Jong Un is a man of the people who is the spitting image of the father of our nation, Kim Il Sung" (Isozaki). So while he may have military ambitions similar to his father's, his personality appears to be somewhat similar to Kim Il Sung's.
This apparent "change in attitude" may bring about discussion of major reforms inside the country. Kim Jong Un is known to have already granted his people a few more civil liberties, such as allowing things that have been previously banned in the country. Earrings for women, pizza, and French fries have all been things the new leader is said to now allow. It could be said that his western education as a young boy has influenced these decisions. At the same time, it is important to note that the DPRK has experienced a rise in markets without state approval in the last few years (Jae). It is possible that, due to the crumbling economy, more individual markets have been allowed in the hopes that it will help boost internal trade. Hence, decreasing the banishment of potential money-worthy products like hamburgers and pizza may actually help the economy grow in the country. Also, in 2010, the nation started allowing American tourists to visit the nation. It is said that the nation welcomes tourism now more than ever due to the revenue gained from visits.
This openness does, however, remind many citizens of the days of Kim Il Sung, who is said to have also been outwardly kind to his comrades. Song Mi Ran, editorial writer for the Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun, states that "Kim Jong Un is a man of the people who is the spitting image of the father of our nation, Kim Il Sung" (Isozaki). So while he may have military ambitions similar to his father's, his personality appears to be somewhat similar to Kim Il Sung's.
This apparent "change in attitude" may bring about discussion of major reforms inside the country. Kim Jong Un is known to have already granted his people a few more civil liberties, such as allowing things that have been previously banned in the country. Earrings for women, pizza, and French fries have all been things the new leader is said to now allow. It could be said that his western education as a young boy has influenced these decisions. At the same time, it is important to note that the DPRK has experienced a rise in markets without state approval in the last few years (Jae). It is possible that, due to the crumbling economy, more individual markets have been allowed in the hopes that it will help boost internal trade. Hence, decreasing the banishment of potential money-worthy products like hamburgers and pizza may actually help the economy grow in the country. Also, in 2010, the nation started allowing American tourists to visit the nation. It is said that the nation welcomes tourism now more than ever due to the revenue gained from visits.
Below: A tourist discusses his trip to North Korea. Discussion of how tourism has become more popular in Pyongyang for revenue purposes in recent years is brought up.
Below: Kim Jong Un appears at a performance with his wife. The crowd is overjoyed.
The Leader's Quest to Boost the Economy
Great Leader posing with Korean family.
Based off of actions already displayed by the leader in his first year of rule, it is probable that he is already establishing his own path to absolute authority. In this case, it may be less likely that oligarchy will be the driving influence in coming years. At the same time, Kim Jong Un is still taking advice from many officials around him and has himself said he welcomes new opinions (see New Leadership). This diverse span of opinions may bring about more change in the regime than expected (Lim).
At the same time, this all very well could be an external effort to sway public opinion in favor of the leader, regardless of the reality behind the situation. There is always skepticism behind the actions of the DPRK, including what the state media shows. Everything shown and reported about the young leader thus far could merely be a campaign to feed what some call the "personality cult" of the Kim dynasty.
While it can be said that this wouldn't be the first time the DPRK engaged in deception, realistically, some change must occur in the nation for it to survive. Even the top officials know this. Even Kim Jong Un knows this. The economy is definitely a major issue. Many Koreans outside Pyongyang are still starving and this has a lot to do with the economy, but also the fact the region lacks an abundance of natural resources. In January of 2012, China declared they would give 500,000 tons of food and 200,000 tons in oil to North Korea (Ahn). However, the DPRK cannot keep living off of aid and donations.
Mun Suk Ahn, writer of the article "Kim Jong Il's Death and Kim Jong Un's Strategy for Seizing Power in the North," states that North Korea must look outside their country for possible solutions. Ahn argues that the U.S. and Japan can pay a vital role in helping with the nation's economy, if only relations between the countries would improve (35). It can be said that perhaps one of the only ways to improve their economy is to take on a more globalized commerce approach. However, this may be too much to expect of the DPRK, due to their Juche philosophy. Additionally, it also may be too much to ask of the U.S. and Japan, who disapprove of the nation's deemed "aggressiveness" in terms of missiles and nuclear tests. It may be important for the DPRK and the U.S. to both look at ways they can work together for the benefit of the people. In order for this to happen, though, both sides need to change their way of thinking about the other.
It is also possible, Jae-Cheon Lim argues, that the DPRK could be headed for the market system seen in The Republic of China. John Fraser, author of the article "From Mao to Now," also argues, "If North Korea does collapse, it will be based on the China model where Maoist succession is replaced with new leadership." In this scenario, we would have to wait for Kim Jong Un's generation to get older and assume more top leadership positions before the system is to change drastically.
At the same time, this all very well could be an external effort to sway public opinion in favor of the leader, regardless of the reality behind the situation. There is always skepticism behind the actions of the DPRK, including what the state media shows. Everything shown and reported about the young leader thus far could merely be a campaign to feed what some call the "personality cult" of the Kim dynasty.
While it can be said that this wouldn't be the first time the DPRK engaged in deception, realistically, some change must occur in the nation for it to survive. Even the top officials know this. Even Kim Jong Un knows this. The economy is definitely a major issue. Many Koreans outside Pyongyang are still starving and this has a lot to do with the economy, but also the fact the region lacks an abundance of natural resources. In January of 2012, China declared they would give 500,000 tons of food and 200,000 tons in oil to North Korea (Ahn). However, the DPRK cannot keep living off of aid and donations.
Mun Suk Ahn, writer of the article "Kim Jong Il's Death and Kim Jong Un's Strategy for Seizing Power in the North," states that North Korea must look outside their country for possible solutions. Ahn argues that the U.S. and Japan can pay a vital role in helping with the nation's economy, if only relations between the countries would improve (35). It can be said that perhaps one of the only ways to improve their economy is to take on a more globalized commerce approach. However, this may be too much to expect of the DPRK, due to their Juche philosophy. Additionally, it also may be too much to ask of the U.S. and Japan, who disapprove of the nation's deemed "aggressiveness" in terms of missiles and nuclear tests. It may be important for the DPRK and the U.S. to both look at ways they can work together for the benefit of the people. In order for this to happen, though, both sides need to change their way of thinking about the other.
It is also possible, Jae-Cheon Lim argues, that the DPRK could be headed for the market system seen in The Republic of China. John Fraser, author of the article "From Mao to Now," also argues, "If North Korea does collapse, it will be based on the China model where Maoist succession is replaced with new leadership." In this scenario, we would have to wait for Kim Jong Un's generation to get older and assume more top leadership positions before the system is to change drastically.
Below: Al Jazeera reports on UN reactions to Kim Jong Un's December 2012 rocket launch; DPRK proud.
What Comes Next?
Some change will definitely occur for the DPRK, as we have already seen. Large changes to the system will most likely happen slowly overtime. It may happen more quickly if the DPRK chooses to go more global in their efforts to boost up their economy. It is all based upon how long it takes for Kim Jong Un to establish his absolute authority and the decisions he makes regarding the best ways to improve the lives of his citizens.
North Korea is often described and known to the West as the hermit kingdom. This is due to the nation's mysterious and isolationist methods of foreign relations, which has stumbled the well-being of Korea’s people and economy. Rooted deeply in their culture, history, and philosophy, are reasons for why they have become the country they are today. If we begin to understand how the DPRK works, including the new leader Kim Jong Un, we will come closer to convincing the country to taking more of a part in the world stage. The DPRK's roots come from the repercussions of WWII with the Soviet occupation. The hatred towards America and the West came from the Korean war, when North Korea attempted to join together with American occupied South Korea. If we begin to step back and understand the history and psychology of Korea, we can possibly begin to have better relations with the country; opening up more trade and commerce, globalization, and more international aid for the state's people. We will never convince Korea to join the world stage by condemning their government without a willingness to understand. At the same time, this must be a collaborative effort. The success of the DPRK also rests in the hands of its own willingness to negotiations with the outside world.
North Korea is often described and known to the West as the hermit kingdom. This is due to the nation's mysterious and isolationist methods of foreign relations, which has stumbled the well-being of Korea’s people and economy. Rooted deeply in their culture, history, and philosophy, are reasons for why they have become the country they are today. If we begin to understand how the DPRK works, including the new leader Kim Jong Un, we will come closer to convincing the country to taking more of a part in the world stage. The DPRK's roots come from the repercussions of WWII with the Soviet occupation. The hatred towards America and the West came from the Korean war, when North Korea attempted to join together with American occupied South Korea. If we begin to step back and understand the history and psychology of Korea, we can possibly begin to have better relations with the country; opening up more trade and commerce, globalization, and more international aid for the state's people. We will never convince Korea to join the world stage by condemning their government without a willingness to understand. At the same time, this must be a collaborative effort. The success of the DPRK also rests in the hands of its own willingness to negotiations with the outside world.
Below: In a miraculous display, the New York Philharmonic was invited to perform in North Korea in 2008. A part of the program was the performance of North Korea's national anthem. The second video shows the same orchestra playing the United States national anthem after playing the DPRK's. It is important to note how most Koreans remain standing during the U.S. anthem, regardless of poor relations between the countries. This gesture is a beautiful display of how, even in the midst of difficult relations between the countries, art and music has the opportunity to speak and unite. This is a sign of possible hope of future peace.